Category: Punditry

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Unmasking the Bear: Deconstructing and Anticipating Russia’s 2024 Election Interference Playbook

I. Introduction: A New Era of Information Warfare

The warning bells are already ringing. The 2024 US elections will be a prime target for Russian information warfare, a threat more sophisticated and insidious than ever before. As the digital landscape evolves and societal divisions deepen, Russia is poised to exploit these vulnerabilities with devastating precision. This is not a game of political maneuvering; it’s a calculated assault on the very foundations of American democracy.

The threat we face today is not a Cold War relic; it’s a constantly adapting hydra, leveraging cutting-edge technologies and preying on the fault lines of our fractured society. Russia isn’t simply trying to sway votes; it’s seeking to shatter trust, amplify chaos, and weaken the fabric of American unity. The stakes are higher than ever, with democratic institutions, societal cohesion, and even national security hanging in the balance.

Former Secretary of Defense, General James Mattis, recognizes this danger with chilling clarity. Speaking about the escalating threat of information warfare in the 2024 election, he warned, “We’re going to have people who are trying to increase the tribalism, increase the distrust between Americans. And right now with the level of ideological disarray in our country, in Beijing and Moscow, the leaders are cheering us on as we tear each other down and we use scorching rhetoric.” He went on to say that our adversaries will “take it to the limit of what they can do to make distrust between you.”

General Mattis’ words are not hyperbole; they are a stark reminder that we are in a new era of conflict, one where the battleground is not a physical landscape but the minds of citizens.

II. Lessons from 2016: A Case Study in Manipulation

The 2016 US presidential election stands as a stark lesson in the power and peril of Russian information warfare. The Mueller Report, a meticulously documented investigation, laid bare the Kremlin’s multifaceted strategy to disrupt American democracy. At the heart of this strategy was a three-pronged attack: social media manipulation, the dissemination of divisive content, and the sophisticated use of narrative laundering.

Russia, through fronts like the so-called Internet Research Agency (IRA), weaponized social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, creating fake accounts and deploying an army of trolls to spread disinformation and sow discord. They amplified existing societal fractures, fueling anxieties about race, immigration, and economic inequality. This wasn’t random noise; it was a calculated campaign to exacerbate polarization and undermine trust in democratic institutions.

Furthermore, Russia mastered the art of narrative laundering, disguising its propaganda as seemingly independent news and commentary. By creating websites that mimicked legitimate news sources and pushing their narratives through co-opted influencers, Russia injected its disinformation into the mainstream media ecosystem, making it harder for Americans to distinguish truth from fabrication.

These tactics proved devastatingly effective. The constant barrage of disinformation and divisive content muddied the waters of public discourse, amplified existing societal rifts, and eroded trust in the electoral process. Even those who didn’t fall for outright lies found themselves questioning the legitimacy of institutions and the reliability of information.

Adding insult to injury, Russia has faced minimal consequences for its 2016 interference. The lack of accountability has only emboldened the Kremlin, sending a clear message: they can continue to meddle in democratic processes with impunity. The 2016 election was not an isolated incident; it was a blueprint for future attacks, a blueprint Russia is already refining for the 2024 elections.

III. John Mark Dougan: A Weaponized Disinformation Agent

John Mark Dougan’s story reads like a dark satire of the American dream gone astray. Once a sheriff’s deputy in Florida, he now operates from Moscow as a key player in Russia’s sophisticated disinformation machine, a stark illustration of how personal grievances and a hunger for notoriety can be exploited to undermine democracy. His transformation from disgruntled ex-cop to purveyor of pro-Kremlin propaganda unveils a chilling truth: in the age of information warfare, anyone can become a weapon.

Dougan, currently under a 21-count sealed indictment in Florida for felony crimes, found refuge in Russia in 2016, granted asylum as he faced accusations of a massive doxxing campaign against public officials. Since then, he has reinvented himself as a self-proclaimed journalist, leveraging his American identity to spread pro-Russian disinformation under the guise of independent reporting.

He has meticulously crafted a network of over 150 fake news websites, masquerading as local news outlets across the US, UK, and France. These digital Potemkin villages, fueled by artificial intelligence, churn out a relentless stream of fabricated articles, mimicking the style and tone of authentic journalism to inject Russian narratives into the heart of Western media.

Dougan’s tactics are a masterclass in narrative laundering and exploitation. He understands the power of local news, the trust people place in familiar formats, and the allure of emotionally charged stories. His fake news network preys on these vulnerabilities, amplifying divisive content and crafting narratives that resonate with specific audiences.

His success in influencing American political discourse is undeniable. His fabricated story about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy using American aid to purchase luxury yachts was amplified by Republican members of Congress, including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. This incident reveals the alarming reach of his disinformation network and its potential to impact policy decisions and public opinion.

Adding a layer of cynicism, Russia actively shields figures like Dougan through its own disinformation campaigns. These efforts often portray him as a persecuted truth-teller, unjustly targeted by Western authorities for daring to challenge the official narrative. This tactic aims to cast doubt on legitimate attempts to expose his disinformation network, making it harder to hold him accountable and further muddying the waters of public discourse.

IV. Trump’s Conviction: Fueling the Disinformation Fire

Donald Trump’s recent conviction on felony charges has thrown gasoline on the already raging fire of Russian disinformation. The Kremlin, never one to miss an opportunity to sow chaos and division, has seized upon this event to further its information warfare goals, exploiting the conviction to undermine trust in American institutions and amplify existing political fractures.

The “political persecution” narrative has become a central theme in Russia’s disinformation playbook. State-controlled media outlets, echoing Trump’s own claims, portray the conviction as a politically motivated witch hunt, orchestrated by the Biden administration to eliminate a rival. This narrative plays on existing anxieties about government overreach and feeds into a broader distrust of the US justice system, particularly among those already sympathetic to Trump.

Russia understands the power of outrage and is actively working to amplify pro-Trump anger and resentment. Based on past observations of Russian election interference, social media manipulation, bot networks, and coordinated online campaigns are likely to be used to spread conspiracy theories about a rigged trial, “deep state” plot, demonize those involved in the prosecution, and harass or intimidate anyone critical of Trump.

This strategy is particularly insidious because it exploits the very foundations of American democracy: faith in the rule of law and the principle of equal justice under the law. By portraying the justice system as a weaponized tool of political enemies, Russia seeks to erode public trust and normalize the idea that power, not evidence, determines guilt or innocence. Trump also appears poised to leverage this narrative for his advantage by portraying himself as a victim of political enemies.

It’s no coincidence that Trump’s past statements on foreign policy often align with Russian narratives. He has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points on issues like Ukraine, NATO, and US involvement in international conflicts, questioning the value of alliances and expressing admiration for authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin. This alignment makes him a valuable asset for Russia, even when out of office, as his words, actions, and ego continue to be amplified and exploited to further the Russian disinformation agenda.

Trump voters should also remember figures like Michael Avenatti, who represented political left extremism plausibly weaponized by Russia against Trump.

This is much like Michael Moore, who it should be noted was also promoted on RT shortly after the 2016 election, highlighting Russia’s willingness to not only help Trump get elected, but to apparently weaponize the chaos it created in American society.

Even Harvey Weinstein – who produced half of Moore’s anti-capitalist and anti-war documentaries – plays strongly into the cultural division and women’s rights issues (#MeToo) created by the reaction to Trump’s rhetoric on the political left.

In stark contrast, President Biden has maintained a centrist stance and consistently condemned Trump’s response to Russian interference, recognizing the gravity of the threat and pledging to protect US elections. He has called for greater accountability for Russia’s actions, strengthened efforts to counter disinformation, and emphasized the need for unity and vigilance in the face of foreign manipulation.

This divergence underscores a crucial point: the fight against Russian disinformation is not just about protecting elections; it’s about defending democratic values and principles. It requires a commitment to truth, accountability, and a shared understanding of the threats we face. Complacency and cynicism only play into Russia’s hands, making us more vulnerable to manipulation and further eroding the foundations of our democracy.

V. Anticipating 2024: Deconstructing the Russian Playbook

As we approach the 2024 US elections, understanding the Russian disinformation playbook is not just a matter of academic curiosity; it’s a vital necessity for safeguarding our democracy. Russia, having tested and refined its tactics in previous campaigns, is poised to unleash a sophisticated and multifaceted information warfare assault, leveraging both tried-and-true methods and emerging technologies like AI to sow discord, manipulate public opinion, and undermine the integrity of the electoral process.

Drawing upon the insights of our forensic semiotic framework designed to dissect disinformation campaigns and expose hidden agendas, we can anticipate a range of potential tactics Russia might employ:

  • Weaponizing Culture Wars:
    • Russia understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Expect them to ruthlessly exploit existing cultural fault lines, inflaming debates on abortion, race, gender, gun control, LGBTQ+ rights, and education. These are not just issues; they are emotional flashpoints, ripe for manipulation. By amplifying extreme voices, spreading inflammatory content, and stoking outrage, Russia can deepen existing divisions, turning neighbor against neighbor and eroding the shared values that bind a nation together.
  • Targeting Swing State Voters:
    • The 2024 election, like its predecessors, will likely hinge on the outcome in a handful of key swing states. Russia, recognizing this, will use micro-targeted disinformation campaigns to sway undecided voters in these crucial battlegrounds. AI-powered tools, social media manipulation, and the exploitation of local news formats, as demonstrated by John Mark Dougan, will allow them to deliver tailored messages designed to exploit specific anxieties and grievances.
  • Undermining Election Integrity:
    • One of Russia’s most insidious goals is to undermine faith in the very process of democratic elections. Expect a surge of disinformation aimed at sowing doubt about election integrity. Conspiracy theories about rigged voting machines, widespread voter fraud, and orchestrated voter suppression will be amplified through social media, co-opted influencers, and even seemingly independent news sources. The goal is to create a climate of cynicism and distrust, making it easier to challenge legitimate election results and sow chaos in the aftermath.
  • Deepfakes and Disinformation:
    • The rise of artificial intelligence has ushered in a new era of disinformation, one where reality itself can be manipulated with alarming ease. Deepfakes, AI-generated audio or video that convincingly portrays events that never happened, will become increasingly prevalent in 2024. Imagine a fabricated video of a candidate making inflammatory statements, committing an illegal act, or engaging in scandalous behavior. Such a deepfake, spread through social media and amplified by a coordinated disinformation campaign, could have a devastating impact on public opinion and election outcomes.
  • The Importance of Vigilance:
    • Russia’s disinformation playbook is not static; it’s a constantly evolving threat. As new technologies emerge and new vulnerabilities are exposed, they will adapt their tactics to maximize their impact. Complacency and cynicism are our greatest enemies. We must remain vigilant, constantly questioning information sources, recognizing manipulation techniques, and resisting the urge to accept emotionally charged narratives at face value.

The 2024 elections will be a battle for the soul of American democracy, a battle fought not on traditional battlefields but in the digital trenches of information warfare. By understanding the enemy’s tactics and embracing a posture of informed skepticism, we can better defend ourselves against manipulation, protect the integrity of our elections, and preserve the hard-won freedoms that are the foundation of our nation.

VI. Countering the Threat: A Multi-Layered Defense

Defending against Russian information warfare requires a multi-layered defense, a coordinated effort that mobilizes citizens, governments, and technology companies to protect the integrity of democratic processes. This is not just a task for intelligence agencies or cybersecurity experts; it’s a call to action for every citizen who values truth, accountability, and the principles of a free and fair society.

Here are key countermeasures that can help mitigate the threat of Russian interference:

  • Expose Russian Tactics:
    • Sunlight is the best disinfectant. Publicly revealing and analyzing Russian disinformation campaigns is crucial for raising awareness and building resistance. Independent media outlets, fact-checking organizations, and researchers must work to expose the tactics, narratives, and networks behind these operations. By shining a light on the Kremlin’s playbook, we can make it harder for them to operate in the shadows and empower citizens to recognize and reject disinformation.
  • Strengthen Media Literacy:
    • In the digital age, information literacy is no longer a luxury; it’s a necessity for informed citizenship. We must equip individuals with the critical thinking skills needed to identify disinformation, evaluate information sources, and recognize manipulation techniques. Educational initiatives, public awareness campaigns, and media literacy programs can help people navigate the treacherous waters of the online information environment.
  • Hold Platforms Accountable:
    • Social media platforms are the battleground of information warfare. We must hold these companies accountable for addressing disinformation and manipulation on their platforms. This requires pressure from governments, civil society organizations, and users themselves. Platforms must invest in content moderation, improve their algorithms to detect and demote disinformation, and take proactive measures to remove fake accounts and bot networks.
  • Government Coordination and Transparency:
    • Governments have a crucial role to play in countering disinformation. This requires enhanced coordination among intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and cybersecurity experts to detect and respond to threats. Transparency is also essential; governments must be open about their efforts to counter disinformation, while respecting civil liberties and avoiding actions that could be perceived as censorship.
  • International Cooperation:
    • Disinformation is a global threat that requires a global response. Collaboration with allies is essential to share intelligence, coordinate responses, and apply diplomatic pressure on Russia to deter interference. By working together, democratic nations can strengthen their defenses and present a united front against those who seek to undermine democratic values.
  • Call to Action:
    • Protecting democracy in the age of disinformation is not a spectator sport. It requires active participation from every citizen. Stay informed, be skeptical of information sources, think critically about the narratives you encounter, and report suspicious activity. By engaging in these simple acts, you become an active defender of democracy, helping to safeguard the freedoms we hold dear. Remember, truth and accountability are not passive virtues; they are weapons we must wield to protect our society from manipulation and preserve a future where facts, not fabrications, shape our world.

VII. Conclusion: Preserving Democracy in the Age of Disinformation

The year 2024 will be a pivotal moment for American democracy. As the nation prepares to elect its leaders, Russia stands poised to unleash its arsenal of disinformation, seeking to exploit our divisions, manipulate our perceptions, and undermine our faith in the very process of self-governance. The threat is urgent, the stakes are high, and the consequences of inaction are dire.

But we are not powerless. While Russia may have mastered the dark arts of information warfare, we have a powerful weapon at our disposal: collective action. Whereas Russia has mastered the art of deception and disinformation, we must master the art of “keeping it real” and respecting our shared values. By working together, citizens, governments, and technology companies can build a resilient defense, mitigating the threat of interference and preserving the integrity of our democratic processes.

Citizens must become informed skeptics, questioning information sources, recognizing manipulation techniques, and rejecting the allure of emotionally charged narratives. Governments must enhance their efforts to counter disinformation, increase transparency, and hold hostile actors accountable. Technology companies must take responsibility for addressing disinformation and manipulation on their platforms, investing in content moderation and developing algorithms that prioritize truth and accountability.

Democracy is resilient. It has weathered storms of division, corruption, and external threats throughout its history. But its survival depends on our vigilance, our engagement, and our unwavering commitment to truth and accountability. In the face of disinformation, complacency is not an option; it’s an invitation to chaos and tyranny.

We must rise to the challenge, embracing the responsibilities of citizenship in the digital age. By arming ourselves with knowledge, critical thinking skills, and a shared determination to protect our democratic values, we can ensure that the 2024 elections, and all those that follow, are decided by informed citizens, not manipulated by foreign adversaries.

Just 4 Kidz Version: “The Big Bear’s Fake News Circus: 2024 Election Edition”

Imagine a circus. But instead of clowns and elephants, it’s full of Russian fake news websites, online trolls dressed up as teddy bears, and sneaky bots spreading lies about America’s elections. The ringmaster?

Vladimir Putin himself, a master of puppets pulling the strings.

In terms of language describing Mr. Putin; and to avoid the spread of misinformation, we should be clear that Mr. Putin is not hairy enough to himself be a bear. However, based on the above photographic evidence, he clearly does associate with bears. So, considering other suspects, it does look like Mr. Medvedev may have a hairy back, but is too short and fit to himself be a bear. Therefore we conclude that Mr. Malofeev may be a bear, but this is hypothetical. This case study highlights the importance of thinking critically about the image of world leaders and how it can effectively contrast with their public persona in information warfare contexts.

The Big Bear’s tricks are old and new:

  • Old Tricks: Remember those nasty rumors and fake news stories that messed up the 2016 election? Russia’s at it again, trying to sow chaos and make Americans distrust each other. They love to stir up arguments about race, immigration, and anything that makes people angry.
  • New Tricks: But they’re getting smarter. Now they use computers to make videos that look totally real, even when they’re totally fake. Imagine seeing a video of a politician saying something awful, but it’s all made up! Russia’s using these tricks to make people believe lies and turn against each other.

Why are they doing this?

  • They want America to look bad. Russia’s not happy with America’s strength, so they’re trying to make us look weak and divided. They want to pull us down into the mud and make us act as bad as they do.
  • They want to influence who wins elections in America, not because they care about our democracy, but because they want us to fight with each other so they can control us.

How to fight back:

Be a truth detective! Don’t believe everything you see online.

Check the source and ask yourself: “Does this sound too crazy to be true?”

“Is this website known for spreading lies?”

Don’t let them divide us! We’re stronger together. Don’t let Russia turn us against each other.

Speak out! Tell your friends, family, and teachers about the threat of Russian disinformation.

The more people know, the harder it is for the Big Bear to play his tricks.

Remember, America: We’re not going to let a bunch of Russian trolls steal our elections!

We’re smarter than that. Let’s keep it real, be vigilant, and stand up for democracy.

Now, learn about how to identify fake “artificial intelligence” (AI) content by creating some of your own! Time to have some fun making AI images of Putin and posting them online!

Putin uses the wig to hide the bald head; don’t be fooled! That isn’t a lady. It is an AI image. 😀
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Bashar al-Assad: Lisping Puppet of Russia

Bashar al-Assad recently gave a speech where he denied the Holocaust as well as promoted the idea that Jewish people in Israel are “Khazars”. Widely also reported was Assad’s claim that the US had enabled the Nazis.

Western editorial reactions to the speech primarily focused on Assad’s Holocaust denialism, and the denialism of the ethnicity of Israeli Jews via the Khazar conspiracy theory — and therefore a denial of the Israeli people’s Biblical right to Israel.

However, my primary reactions to the speech were to note Assad’s clear invocation of Russia’s cult of WW2 and ideology of victory as well as continued  parrotting of Russian nationalist ideas within a ‘narrative warfare’ context in general.

Another strong takeaway I had was that despite his argumentation that his narrative was the truth, Assad seems to feel that this war for “truth” does not necessarily correspond  to the true and the false. In this sense, that is much like the historical antisemitism which is represented by people who believe in forgeries like The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion despite all evidence they are inauthentic documents.

I imagined how funny it must have sounded when he said it:

“….whoever winth the truth… Of courthe, the truth, regardleth of whether it is real or falthe, ith the one who winth the war and the battle.” – Bashar al-Assad (sloppy lisp emphasis added by the author)

Muppet Bashar al-Assad : Thupreme Leader of Thyria (AI generated)

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(What if) Russia Hacked the Ever Given?

The massive Ever Given container ship currently blocking Egypt’s Suez Canal since March 23, 2021 has become a major disruptor to world trade. Attributed to a sandstorm, high winds, or even claims of a power blackout, the logistical nightmare has not been claimed to be an intentional act.

The ship’s movements in the time before it entered the canal and became wedged can be described as “odd”. It seems presumptuous to me to call it “innocent, but terrible luck”. 

On the other hand, with a growing body of research that Russia in particular has pioneered GPS spoofing as a form of electronic warfare, and that even several hundred dollars of off the shelf technology may be able to commandeer multi-million dollar ships using GPS hacking techniques – isn’t it worth asking – like asking about the collisions of Navy ships in the South China Sea – if some kind of GPS hacking could be involved here? And specifically the sort which might be in the interest of Russia or another authoritarian state? It’s a responsible, and informed question.

It does not give me good feelings that Russia (specifically Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear agency) is taking advantage of the blocked canal to build awareness of the Northern Sea Route which is now navigable due to global warming and Russia’s fleet of ice breakers.

It has been just over a month since the first winter experimental transit of the Northern Sea Route by a container ship accompanied by a nuclear ice breaker.

Vladimir Putin has apparently been promoting the Northern Sea Route for a long time as an alternative to the Suez canal. It seems clear by a read of the history that the Northern Sea Route factors into strategic plans to disrupt the American-led global economic order.

In order to be sure this was all an accident, I really need to know more about the captain of the Ever Given. Were they as reckless as the GPS path of the ship suggests? I tend to think this would be a role given to a mature captain not given over to juvenile demonstrations.

Or perhaps, was the ship under control by hackers and the GPS cock(a)doodle was their “signature”?

Or was someone on the inside even paid off in something like Bitcoin to do it?

Knowing more about the captain and crew of the Ever Given could shed a lot of light on this situation. Writing this off as innocent given the immediate consequences is far too presumptuous. Even the Russians are asking if Moscow benefits from the crisis.

As of now, I am left with just one main suspect for possessing the theoretical crime signature.

Edit 4/12/2021:  I’ve watched a few videos of ship captains talking about the GPS track image which has made me less confident that the image created was purposeful. The path was created over a relatively long time period of several hours, which doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario if it was purposeful.

Instead, the pattern may be caused by the boat drifting and returning to the designated point where it would have picked up the local captains for the Suez transit. 

However, I’ve also just learned that Russian Navy vessels conducting training were in the area. According to Wikipedia, these were “Steregushchiy-class corvette Stoikiy and Altay-class oiler Kola“. I think this is interesting as far as being a consistent linkage to Russian military in this theory.

It might also be worth asking if the explosion in QAnon conspiracies about the ship blocking the canal being due to hacking are also an inorganic byproduct of influence operations.  

With that said, there needs to be a lot more evidence to call this a hacking, though I still think it is plausible and likely attributable to a Russian, or Russian-Chinese strategy if so. Both countries have focused on weakening the ‘West’ and exploiting the melting Arctic for trade purposes. 

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Vladimir is the Ruler of the World

Question More about the deceiver of the whole world

In September 2017, Vladimir Putin said of Artificial Intelligence that “the one who becomes the leader in this sphere will be the ruler of the world.”

Fascinatingly, the name Vladimir itself may translate in Slavic languages as “to rule the peace” or “to rule the world”.

The term “the ruler of the world” (or “ruler of this world”) is an interesting choice of words, because it is a biblical term associated with the work of Satan and the Antichrist to most Christians.

Now, if we look at the name of Satan:

“The name Satan is derived from the Hebrew שָׂטָן Satan which means “adversary, opponent…accuser, opposing party…[or] the one who hinders a purpose”[1] The Greek Σατανᾶς Satanas carries the same meaning and is used “in a very special sense of the enemy of God and all of those who belong to God.”[2] Other names for Satan include the shining one, or Lucifer (Isa 14:12), the evil one (1 John 5:19), the tempter (1 Thess 3:5), the devil (Matt 4:1), the god of this world (2 Cor 4:4), the accuser of the brethren (Rev 12:10), the prince of the power of the air (Eph 2:2), the serpent (Rev 12:9), and the great red dragon (Rev 12:3). Further, Satan is a murderer and liar (John 8:44), is compared to a lion that prowls about, looking for someone to devour (1 Pet 5:8), and one who disguises himself as an angel of light (2 Cor 11:14).”

I’m quite sure that James Randi would approve of Putin’s “honest liar” statement about his goals for AI and world domination.

I think Vladimir would be a great name for the Antichrist, LOL. Protip: Keep it in mind Satan, when choosing a baby names. (I also recommend Donald in case of twins, there are many antichrists afterall.)

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Coronavirus as Hybrid Total War (Correlation is not Causation)

From the start of this pandemic, it has been likened to a war – especially to our generation’s equivalent experience of a world war.

Although this war seems to primarily affect civilians, as of today (January 3, 2021), the US has experienced more than 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19; this is more than the  approximately 53,000 U.S. combat deaths in World War I, and it seems likely that within months casualties will eclipse US WWII combat death totals of 416,600.

Graph demonstrating that there is some moderate correlation between US military alliance and COVID-19 death rate (Source: Statista.com)

Of course, a comparison with the global influenza epidemic of 1918 may be more apt in this case. The influenza infected almost 25% of the planet. It killed nearly 45,000 American soldiers – almost equivalent to the overlapping US combat deaths in World War I – and caused 675,000 deaths among American civilians.

It seems reasonable to state at this point in history, that the current pandemic is taking on some features which give it some feature similarity to prior world wars and pandemics from the perspective of the public experience.

With that said, we are objectively in a pandemic – but are we objectively in a war? Continue reading “Coronavirus as Hybrid Total War (Correlation is not Causation)”

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Don’t Buy the ‘Chinese Meat’ of Chekist Disinformation

The position of my blog has generally been oriented towards viewing Russia as a rogue and China as a peer – such that they respectively merit foreign relations approaches weighted towards war and diplomacy. Despite this, the informational evidence shows that the idea of an inevitable “Thucydides Trap” between China and the US has been exacerbated by Russian disinformation and active measures. Now it seems many very fine people on both sides are eating a similar tainted “Chinese meat” of disinformation sourced from Russian intelligence which will lead to Chinese-US hostility if carried to a logical conclusion.

A long time to go and a fallacy from far away (Approved for Chinese and US audiences)

Continue reading “Don’t Buy the ‘Chinese Meat’ of Chekist Disinformation”

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It has to be asked: Coronavirus as a Russian ‘Hybrid Biothreat’?

Given the unprecedented nature of both the true public health risk and accompanying informational hysteria associated with ‘coronavirus’ (a.k.a. COVID-19 / nCoV2019), I have some hesitancy to blog this because I think it is potentially irresponsible given the current public anxieties. In the worst case, it could be wrong and amplify conspiracy thinking about the crisis, which is certainly not my intent. That said, based on my research, this crisis reminds me of Russian information warfare associated with the AIDS epidemic as well as 9/11 conspiracism; and the informational profiles of modern warfare campaigns in Syria and Ukraine as well. Despite the potential for contributing to conspiracy thinking with this analysis, I think talking about things like this openly is important to improve our informational (and apparently public health) security posture.

It is inarguable that Russia is spreading disinformation about the coronavirus in multiple sources, accusing both China and the United States of releasing it as a bioweapon. Resultingly, there seems to be evidence that public officials in China and the US have accused the other respective nation of strategically orchestrating this crisis for warfare purposes. Allegorically, conspiracy theories about the virus as a bioweapon seem popular online, and I’ve heard them in personal conversations as well.

To give this unprecedented crisis the unique definition it deserves, I think it is clear that the Russian activity around coronavirus may classify the outbreak as a ‘hybrid biothreat’ – a mashup of the terms ‘hybrid threat’ and ‘biothreat’.

A hybrid threat has been described by NATO as: “Hybrid threats combine military and non-military as well as covert and overt means, including disinformation, cyber attacks, economic pressure, deployment of irregular armed groups and use of regular forces. Hybrid methods are used to blur the lines between war and peace, and attempt to sow doubt in the minds of target populations.”

A biothreat has been described in military academia as: “Biological threat agents or, more colloquially, biothreats or bioagents are pathogens and/or their toxic products that pose a substantial threat to human health. They are a diverse group that includes viruses, bacteria, and toxins from biological sources, and indeed that diversity is reflected in the extraordinary range of transmissibility, infectivity, and lethality that they exhibit. Bioagents encompass both naturally occurring and engineered pathogens and the threat they pose originates from natural outbreaks as well as from their intentional release.”

Thus, a ‘hybrid biothreat’ could be seen as such a biothreat which supports a hybrid threat kind of warfare campaign, but which does not rise to the level of perceived threat which is likely to result in a direct military confrontation.

The question is whether Russia is simply exploiting an impromptu opportunity to sow international discord – or whether the disinformation is supporting actual biowarfare as a component of a higher-order hybrid warfare campaign. There’s no hard evidence that the novel coronavirus is a Russian bioweapon, but perhaps I can persuade you circumstantially that the Russians have masterfully exploited the crisis to the benefit of their broader ‘portfolio’ of operations. Maybe it is common sense.

Bat Shit Crazy: A Russian Mission to Mars?

The first piece of evidence I would highlight is the legacy of the ‘Operation Infektion’ active measure from the 1980’s, where Communist Russian and East German disinformation agents claimed the HIV virus which causes AIDS was a bioengineered weapon of the United States military. It was a successful operation which seems to have fundamentally undermined faith and confidence in the US government.

So just to note, there is a clear precedence in this idea of blending disinformation with a public concern about a viral biothreat as an ‘active measure’ –  accusing the U.S. military of criminally bioengineering the disease as a weapon – and it is a tactic historically attributable to Russian influence.

The next piece of evidence I’d reference is that the well-acknowledged Russian proxy disinformation outlet ZeroHedge was banned from Twitter over spreading allegations that coronavirus was a Chinese-engineered bioweapon, and for ‘doxxing’ a Chinese doctor associated with the crisis in late January 2020.

The offending ZeroHedge article claimed that the novel coronavirus contained inserted HIV genes. Although the scholarly paper they cited in the article was withdrawn because the same gene segments could be found in a variety of organisms, ZeroHedge seems to have continued to amplify this debunked theme over time. (This is a site I’ve been watching a while for its far-right ideology, financial apocalypticism, and bitcoin promotion. It’s the kind of Russian disinformation site which apparently “promotes Trump” (like Infowars) in order to achieve Russian objectives.)

According to ZeroHedge [highlighted as disinformation]: “The theory is that the virus, which was developed by infectious disease experts may have originated in the Wuhan-based lab of Dr. Peng Zhou, China’s preeminent researcher of bat immune systems, specifically in how their immune systems adapt to the presence of viruses like coronavirus and other destructive viruses. Somehow, the virus escaped from the lab, and the Hunan fish market where the virus supposedly originated is merely a ruse.

Now, a respected epidemiologist who recently caught flack for claiming in a twitter threat that the virus appeared to be much more contagious than initially believed is pointing out irregularities in the virus’s genome that suggests it might have been genetically engineered for the purposes of a weapon, and not just any weapon but the deadliest one of all.

In “Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag”, Indian researchers are baffled by segments of the virus’s RNA that have no relation to other coronaviruses like SARS, and instead appear to be closer to HIV. The virus even responds to treatment by HIV medications.”

Next, in more transparent alignment with Russian disinformation such as the prior case of Operation Infektion, it has been widely reported that Russian state media have outright blamed the virus as emerging from an American bioweapons program and being intended to target the Chinese economy. George Soros – a frequent concept in Russian conspiracism is also included in the milieu (perhaps giving the conspiracism an anti-Semitic dimension).

Examples pointing to the use of Nostradamus and Baba Vanga prophecies in these coronavirus hoaxes by Russian state media and influencers are also closely in line with my prior observations.

The idea of putting a wedge between East and West (to wit China and America) is an idea I’ve discussed previously here in association with Russian disinformation, and may potentially serve Russian interests. (Specifically in the case of China, one might also look historically to the case of the Boxer Rebellion, where diplomats saw Russia playing both sides of the crisis.)

It is well acknowledged that as in the case of the 2016 election that Russia played both sides in an information war – and continues to sow such divides in American society in the lead-up to the 2020 elections. (See how I tried to define ‘schizowarfare’ politically.)

However, it is also clear that Russia played both sides of the informational coin in the lead-up to the hot war of WW2 as well, as evidenced by both anti-fascist propaganda, Russian ‘theosophical’ influence on Nazi ideology, and the very substance of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

On matters of human migration, in line with the current crisis, Russia’s prescient border closures with China could be seen as suspect. But in addition broadly elsewhere, the coronavirus hysteria has created problems for Europe in line with ‘weaponized migration’ that is historically associated with aggressive Russian action in Syria. This can be related to the case of Turkish interactions with Russia in Syria leading to new waves of destabilizing migrants into Greece, as Turkey also defends against a high infection rate emanating from Iranians. 

In Ukraine, another of Russia’s clear hybrid war zones of influence, hostility against Chinese workers and migrants has emerged as a result of disinformation consumption.

Italy, home of Roman Catholicism – a faith which Russian Orthodoxy is historically adversarial to – is one of the hardest hit areas by both the migration crisis and the epidemic.

Indeed in Europe, Far-Right parties often associated with Russian influence are using the coronavirus and migration problem to argue against open societies and borders.

Next, we could turn our attention to not only the harsh impact of the coronavirus on the US economy, but of the subsequent shock which was sent through global financial markets as Russia ignited an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. (Looking back at the 2008 financial crisis, it was noted that Russia had attempted to crater the US market recovery by dumping mortgage bonds (which China apparently refused to do and notified US regulators).)

So certainly, from the standpoint of information warfare, synergy with existing campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, and potentially economic warfare as well, there may be a lot of good evidence to tie Russia to aspects of the coronavirus hysteria. It certainly seems to fit the definition of a hybrid threat.

Biothreat seems self evident in the case of coronavirus. But what about a bioweapon? Russia has accused both the US and China of having created coronavirus as a bioweapon, but has anyone asked if Russia may have? Russia is historically known not just to have an outstanding disinformation capability, but to have one of the most clandestine and advanced bioweapons programs in the world as well.

And for the record, it is actually not crazy to ask if the coronavirus had emerged from a lab.

As Scientific American reported on March 11, the Chinese bat coronavirus expert expert Dr. Shi Zhegli – who had discovered the origins of many former coronaviruses (including the previous Chinese SARS outbreak of 2002-2003) “had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China”, and remembered thinking “could [the coronavirus] have come from our lab?”. ‘Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoir for many viruses.’

It seems conceivable to me that a large-scale hybrid warfare campaign most likely linked to Russia (but possibly including some collusive involvement from China, North Korea, and/or Iran) is being waged around coronavirus.

It is interesting to wonder if the virus was actually engineered and released by Russia’s allegedly mature bioweapons program in order to achieve some kind of advanced synergistic hybrid warfare agenda. Russia’s accusations of both Chinese and American bioweapons activity are interesting in light of Russia’s purportedly more mature capabilities in biowarfare; not to mention past notoriety for its AIDS disinformation campaign.

I’d assume the very idea of discussing coronavirus as a bioweapon has become a taboo subject for most intellectuals because of the sheer face value stupidity of the Russian disinformation and its consumers. Followingly, I assume the ‘fog of falsehood‘ around the virus has made the idea of discussing it being a Russian bioweapon forbidden too.

However, maybe the idea of rejecting it as a bioweapon at the academic level is just what Russia wants, because then nobody who cares about how they look in the scholarly community asks if Russia is responsible. If nobody asks the question, then it is possible we could never be prepared for the scenario. So I think it is important to ask, especially of the ‘guy’ with a behavioral pattern of being guilty of the crime before – but who is currently pointing the finger at everyone else.

Certainly it is more parsimonious that the virus came from the outdoor market, or was a curated sample leaked from the Chinese lab, than it came from a Russian source. But based on Russia’s lies about the United States in the past on similar matters, and Russia’s strategic capitalization of the current matter to augment its warfare campaigns in Ukraine and Syria – or to ignite an oil price war simultaneous to the stock market drop on coronavirus – and I would say it is much more likely that Russia is responsible than America is, if it is a bioweapon afterall. Who benefits?

Neither China nor America clearly benefits, but I think Russia seems to be attempting to. It seems a masterful move to divide China and the U.S., along the contours of previously observed patterns associated with Russian strategy. Perhaps the location of the initial outbreak was perfect for both finger pointing and plausible deniability by Russia.

By these measures, I think even if the novel coronavirus is not bioengineered or a bioweapon, the simple fact of Russia’s weaponization of information, migration, and economics around the epidemic highlights the similar weaponization of the virus itself – placing it in the category of what I’d call a ‘hybrid biothreat’.

UPDATE 3/18/2020: Given genomic evidence suggesting the novel coronavirus evolved normally and is not genetically modifed, it strongly debunks Russia’s bioengineered weapon assertions. But it does not prove that the virus was not intentionally leaked. I believe that the raft of press reports of Russian disinformation about the coronavirus outbreak over the past few days supports most of the ideas in this blog. I think it is only a matter of time before the clear connection is made to Russian hybrid activities.

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Jack Parsons: Soviet Spy? (Guest Blog by Dr. Richard Spence)

A first at n01r today is a guest blog from Dr. Richard Spence, Professor in the History Department at the University of Idaho. Dr. Spence  has one of the coolest sets of courses I’ve seen which complements a lot of the things I investigate at the site; such as the intersection of the occult, strategic disinformation, and espionage (like Theosophy).

Dr. Spence has done some great work linking Aleister Crowley to espionage networks, and was kind enough to offer a draft article of a circumstantial connection linking Jack Parsons to Soviet intelligence as well.  He makes a great argument for how Parsons might have been manipulated by a skilled handler based on his (apparently narcissistic) psychology.

Such a background seems highly pertinent to my investigation linking the Black Dahlia and Tate-LaBianca murders to a communist plot via the art movement Surrealism and/or the occultist movement of Crowleyan ‘Satanism’. (Suffice to say, I am confident that the good doctor has not read my entire site and you should not construe that his views represent my views or vice versa.)

Jack Parsons and Marjorie Cameron in 1946

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Team America: The Case for a Four Party System and ‘Gerrymandering Centrism’

I was delighted to hear Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declare loud and clear that the US is building a “New Liberal World Order“. This is an important diplomatic step that America should take in order to reinforce the post-WW2 peace and in order to counter authoritarian interests. However, as previously blogged here, our domestic American culture is increasingly polarized by conspiratorial elements who are traceable to the influence operations of Russia and other authoritarian cultures. As a result, post-Soviet US politics has become increasingly divided along extremist lines, and American bipartisanship and ‘liberalism’ (in a “John Locke” sense) has all but disappeared.

Until we address our political mess at home and forthrightly take on some tough questions about how to curtail such influence without damaging constitutional protections for free speech,  I don’t see how this theoretically noble and necessary effort to re-entrench liberal power abroad can be credible or successful. Politically and mathematically, it seems to me that one of the best ways to ‘hack back’ against Russian political influence and force rational bipartisanship (without resorting to some kind of centrist authoritarianism in a three party system) would be to abandon the two party system in favor of a four party system which leads to the forced ‘gerrymandering of centrism’. (Maybe this is why the UK has gone this route.)

At the same time as polarizing conspiracism attributable to foreign authoritarian influence in America has increased, politics has become increasingly partisan, uncivil, and divisive. (image via Plos One)

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Why Michael Avenatti should have earned a ban from Twitter by now

Stormy Daniels and Michael Avenatti are now feuding, and it seems this might very well be the end of their relationship. This seems related to Daniels’ complaint to the Daily Beast that Avenatti filed the Donald Trump defamation lawsuit without her consent (which she lost and was obligated to pay hefty legal fees on).

Additionally, Daniels complained that Avenatti obfuscated details of how more than $400k in crowdfunded monies raised for Daniels’ legal defense have been spent. In recent days, Avenatti started yet another crowdfunded campaign without Daniels’ consent (if anyone can believe her), using language which implied her intimate involvement (the campaign has apparently been suspended, although Avenatti’s tweet announcing it still persists at the time of this writing). (Update: this campaign and another by Avenatti related to migrant mothers and their children are under review.)

To top it off, this morning Avenatti was publicizing apparently passive aggressive ‘Streisand effect’-like news about his client, and about why his audience of close to 900k Twitter followers should “reserve judgement” about a police report which was filed against Stormy Daniels and her ex-husband by a gay couple who alleged homophobic slurs were levied at them in the course of a business dispute (one of Avenatti’s steadfast exes helpfully shared the actual article about it— and being from an obscure source — it isn’t likely people would have found the article or known of it otherwise). (Classy people, these Michael Avenatti clients and lady friends.)

While all of this is leaving the question up in the air of whether Daniels and Avenatti have turned on one another, and if his advocacy of her is done for good, it also has me asking if Michael Avenatti’s use of the Twitter platform to preempt a series of incendiary cultural/political debates about sex and race — not to mention his use of it for potential financial malfeasance – might be sufficient grounds for him to be banned there.

I had recently done a quick year-to-date Google Trends analysis of Michael Avenatti, which was unrelated to the Twitter question. Surprisingly however, it shows just how correlated public interest is in him with Twitter. I think this objectively demonstrates how essential the platform is to the enablement of his campaign of apparent lies, hate, and division.

Google Trends data about Michael Avenatti over the past year reveals quite a bit about his dependence on Twitter. (Click for large version.)

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