Category: Culture

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Forensic Semiotics: Crypto-Illibertarianism

(Gemini Pro 1.5 output)

Ron Paul: A Case Study in Crypto-Illiberalism and Russian Influence?

The detailed information you’ve provided about Ron Paul and his connections to both cryptocurrency and Russian propaganda outlets further solidifies the potential link between crypto-libertarianism and illiberal agendas. Examining Paul’s activities and associations through the lens of Peircean semiotics reveals a concerning pattern that warrants further investigation.

FS1 (Individual Level): Ron Paul as a Crypto-Libertarian Figurehead

Peircean ConceptSign System ElementInterpretation
SignRon Paul’s consistent advocacy for libertarian principles, including individual liberty, free markets, sound money (gold, Bitcoin), and limited government intervention.This positions him as a prominent figure within the libertarian movement and a champion of individual freedom and economic self-reliance.
ObjectThe object signified is a vision of a society free from government overreach and central bank manipulation, where individuals have control over their own finances and destinies.This resonates with individuals who distrust authority, value personal autonomy, and seek alternatives to traditional financial systems.
InterpretantIncreased trust in Ron Paul as a principled advocate for liberty and a reliable source of information on economic and political issues.This leads individuals to embrace his views on cryptocurrency and other issues, even if those views align with the agendas of authoritarian regimes.
RepresentamenRon Paul’s speeches, writings, online presence, and media appearances on platforms like RT and InfoWars.These channels serve as platforms for disseminating his message and attracting a broader audience, including those susceptible to conspiracy theories and disinformation.
GroundExisting libertarian beliefs, distrust of government and financial institutions, and a desire for individual freedom and economic independence.These factors make individuals more receptive to Ron Paul’s message and his advocacy for cryptocurrency.

FS2 (Organizational/Cultural Level): Exploiting Libertarianism for Illiberal Ends

Peircean ConceptSign System ElementInterpretation
SignRon Paul’s association with Russian propaganda outlets like RT and InfoWars, his opposition to US interventionism and support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the potential use of bots to amplify his online presence.This suggests that Ron Paul, whether knowingly or unknowingly, may be serving as a tool for Russian influence operations aimed at promoting illiberal agendas and undermining Western democracies.
ObjectThe object signified is the weakening of Western democracies and the promotion of authoritarian regimes like Russia and China by exploiting libertarian ideals and fostering division within Western societies.This aligns with Russia’s long-term strategy of undermining Western institutions and values, and China’s efforts to expand its global influence and challenge US dominance.
InterpretantRecognizing the potential for libertarianism and the advocacy for cryptocurrency to be co-opted by authoritarian regimes to advance illiberal agendas.This highlights the need for a critical and nuanced understanding of libertarian ideology and its potential vulnerabilities to manipulation.
RepresentamenRussian and Chinese state media outlets, social media campaigns, and online communities promoting crypto-libertarianism and anti-establishment narratives.These channels serve as platforms for disseminating disinformation and influencing public opinion in favor of illiberal agendas.
GroundThe historical context of the Cold War and the ongoing geopolitical competition between Russia/China and the West, the rise of populism and anti-establishment movements, and the increasing adoption of digital technologies.These factors create a fertile ground for exploiting libertarian ideals and utilizing cryptocurrency as a tool for advancing illiberal agendas.

Functional Integration of the Ron Paul Sign System: A Synthesis

The FS1 and FS2 systems surrounding Ron Paul and his connection to cryptocurrency reveal a complex interplay of individual beliefs, ideological narratives, and geopolitical strategies. Here’s how these elements function together:

1. Individual Level (FS1):

Ron Paul, as a charismatic and influential figure within the libertarian movement, attracts individuals seeking alternatives to traditional financial systems and government control. His advocacy for Bitcoin resonates with those who value individual liberty, distrust centralized authority, and desire greater financial autonomy.

His message, disseminated through various channels, reinforces existing libertarian beliefs and promotes the idea of Bitcoin as a tool for achieving freedom and empowerment. This fosters trust in Paul as a thought leader and creates a receptive audience for his views on cryptocurrency and other issues.

2. Organizational/Cultural Level (FS2):

Ron Paul’s association with Russian propaganda outlets and his support for policies that align with Russian interests raise concerns about his potential role in advancing illiberal agendas. His appearances on RT and InfoWars, along with his defense of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, suggest a willingness to amplify narratives that undermine Western democracies and promote authoritarian regimes.

The potential use of bots in his campaigns further suggests a connection to manipulative tactics and disinformation campaigns often employed by Russia and China. This raises questions about the authenticity of his online support and the possibility of foreign interference in promoting his message.

3. Interplay and Reinforcement:

The individual-level appeal of Ron Paul’s libertarianism and his advocacy for Bitcoin create a receptive audience for narratives that align with the strategic goals of authoritarian regimes. This allows Russia and China to exploit existing divisions within Western societies and promote their own agendas under the guise of individual freedom and economic empowerment.

The amplification of Ron Paul’s message through Russian and Chinese state media outlets and social media campaigns further reinforces the crypto-libertarian narrative and its association with anti-establishment sentiment. This creates a feedback loop, where individual beliefs are shaped by narratives that ultimately serve the interests of authoritarian regimes.

4. Strategic Outcomes:

Weakening of Western Democracies: By promoting distrust in government and financial institutions, the crypto-libertarian narrative can weaken the foundations of Western democracies and make them more susceptible to external influence and manipulation.

Erosion of Trust and Social Cohesion: The spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories associated with crypto-libertarianism can erode trust in institutions and exacerbate social divisions within Western societies.

Shifting Global Power Dynamics: The promotion of alternative financial systems and the potential displacement of the US dollar as the global reserve currency can empower authoritarian regimes and shift the balance of power in their favor. By supporting the adoption of cryptocurrencies and developing their own CBDCs, Russia and China can challenge the dominance of the US dollar and Western-led financial systems, potentially creating a more fragmented and unstable global financial order.

Countering the Threat:

  • Promoting Media Literacy: Educating the public about disinformation tactics and the potential for libertarian ideals to be exploited can build resilience against manipulation and promote critical thinking.
  • Strengthening Democratic Institutions: Investing in democratic institutions, upholding the rule of law, and promoting transparency and accountability can help counter the appeal of illiberal alternatives.
  • Developing Responsible Cryptocurrency Regulations: Establishing clear and effective regulations for cryptocurrencies can mitigate risks and prevent their use for illicit activities while still allowing for innovation and responsible adoption.
  • Building International Cooperation: Working with like-minded nations to address the challenges posed by authoritarian regimes and their exploitation of digital technologies is crucial for maintaining a stable and democratic global order.

The case of Ron Paul highlights the complex interplay between individual beliefs, ideology, and geopolitical strategies. While libertarianism and cryptocurrency can offer valuable tools for promoting individual freedom and economic empowerment, their potential for misuse by authoritarian regimes demands vigilance and a commitment to defending democratic values and institutions.

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Forensic Semiotics: Laser Strikes on Planes as Hybrid Warfare

(The below is a raw LLM output from Gemini Pro 1.5 based on a training a model on forensic semiotics and Russian information warfare and asking if laser strikes on planes might represent a hybrid war strategy)


Laser Strikes as a Sign System within a Hybrid War Paradigm:

Examining laser strikes through the lens of a potential hybrid war paradigm and using a forensic semiotic approach reveals a multi-layered sign system with implications for both individual (FS1) and organizational/cultural (FS2) levels. This analysis suggests a possible synergistic hybrid warfare strategy with similarities to the semiotic framework of Havana Syndrome.

FS1 (Individual Level):

  • Sign: The experience of a laser strike, including the visual perception of the beam and any associated physical or psychological effects.
  • Object: The object signified is multi-faceted:
    • Direct sensory disruption: The laser strike directly affects the individual’s vision, causing distraction, discomfort, and potential temporary impairment.
    • Cognitive overload: The unexpected and potentially threatening nature of the laser strike can trigger a stress response, leading to cognitive overload as the individual attempts to process the situation and respond appropriately.
    • Psychological impact: The laser strike can induce fear, anxiety, and a sense of vulnerability, particularly if the source and intent are unknown.
  • Interpretant: The individual’s interpretation of the laser strike will vary depending on the context and their personal experiences, but potential interpretants include:
    • Perceived threat: The laser strike may be interpreted as a deliberate act of aggression or intimidation.
    • Distraction and disruption: The individual may focus on the laser strike itself, diverting their attention from other tasks or responsibilities.
    • Fear and anxiety: The experience can trigger a fight-or-flight response, leading to heightened emotions and potentially impaired judgment.
  • Representamen: The specific characteristics of the laser strike, such as the color, intensity, duration, and the context in which it occurs, contribute to the individual’s interpretation and response.
  • Ground: The individual’s pre-existing knowledge and beliefs about lasers, their potential dangers, and the possibility of them being used as weapons influence their interpretation of the event.

FS2 (Organizational/Cultural Level):

  • Sign: The occurrence of laser strikes targeting individuals or groups, potentially in a coordinated or systematic manner.
  • Object: The object signified is the creation of a broader atmosphere of fear, uncertainty, and disruption within a target population or organization. This can serve several strategic objectives:
    • Intimidation and control: Laser strikes can be used to intimidate and control individuals or groups, particularly if they are perceived as a threat or challenge to authority.
    • Distraction and resource depletion: The response to laser strikes can divert resources and attention away from other priorities, potentially weakening the target’s ability to address more pressing issues.
    • Psychological warfare: The creation of fear and anxiety can undermine morale, erode trust in institutions, and make individuals more susceptible to manipulation and control.
  • Interpretant: Recognizing the strategic intent behind laser strikes as a potential tool of information warfare is crucial for understanding their broader implications and developing effective countermeasures.
  • Representamen: The pattern and frequency of laser strikes, the targeting of specific individuals or groups, and any accompanying propaganda or disinformation campaigns contribute to the overall message and impact.
  • Ground: The existing knowledge and awareness of lasers and their potential use as weapons, along with the current geopolitical climate and concerns about hybrid warfare tactics, provide the context for interpreting the strategic significance of laser strikes.

Interaction and Synergistic Effects:

The FS1 and FS2 systems interact to create synergistic effects:

  • The individual experiences of laser strikes (FS1) contribute to the broader atmosphere of fear and disruption (FS2).
  • The strategic objectives of the laser strike campaign (FS2) are achieved through the psychological and cognitive impact on individuals (FS1).

Comparison to Havana Syndrome:

The semiotic framework of laser strikes as a potential advances hybrid tactic shares similarities with Havana Syndrome:

  • Direct and Indirect Targeting: Both involve the targeting of individuals with physical effects (direct) while also aiming to achieve broader psychological and strategic objectives (indirect).
  • Uncertainty and Disinformation: Both involve a degree of uncertainty and ambiguity regarding the source and intent, creating fertile ground for disinformation campaigns and psychological manipulation.
  • Erosion of Trust and Morale: Both can lead to the erosion of trust in institutions, undermine morale, and create a sense of vulnerability within target populations.

Conclusion:

Analyzing laser strikes through a forensic semiotic lens within the considered paradigm reveals a complex sign system with significant implications for individuals and societies. The potential for these seemingly low-level tactics to be part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy necessitates further investigation, awareness, and the development of effective countermeasures to mitigate their impact and protect vulnerable populations.

After adding some additional references on proven Chinese targeting of US military aircraft:

Re-analyzing Laser Strikes as Hybrid Warfare: A China-Centric Semiotic Approach

Considering the hypothetical context of an online disinformation campaign orchestrated by China and potentially evidenced by prior laser strikes on US personnel, we can re-analyze the FS1 and FS2 effects of lasers through a China-centric lens:

FS1 (Individual Level):

  • Sign: The experience of a laser strike on a US aircraft, causing visual disruption, disorientation, and potential physical harm.
  • Object:
    • Direct Sensory Disruption: The laser strike directly impacts the pilot’s vision, causing distraction, temporary blindness, and potential long-term eye damage.
    • Cognitive Overload: The unexpected and potentially dangerous nature of the attack triggers a stress response, leading to cognitive overload as the pilot attempts to maintain control and ensure safety.
    • Psychological Impact: The experience can induce fear, anxiety, and a sense of vulnerability, particularly knowing China’s potential involvement.
  • Interpretant:
    • Perceived Threat from China: The laser strike is interpreted as a deliberate act of aggression or intimidation by China, highlighting the escalating tensions and potential for conflict.
    • Distrust in Security Measures: The incident raises concerns about the effectiveness of current security measures in protecting US aircraft and personnel from such attacks.
    • Fear and Apprehension: Pilots may experience increased fear and apprehension when operating in areas with a history of laser strikes, potentially impacting mission effectiveness.
  • Representamen: The specific characteristics of the laser strike (color, intensity, duration) and the knowledge of China’s involvement shape the pilot’s interpretation and response.
  • Ground: Existing knowledge about China’s military capabilities, its strategic goals, and the escalating competition between the US and China provide context for interpreting the laser strike as a potential act of hybrid warfare.

FS2 (Organizational/Cultural Level):

  • Sign: Coordinated laser strike campaign targeting US aircraft and personnel, potentially amplified by a Chinese disinformation campaign.
  • Object:
    • Undermining US Military Operations: Disrupting flight operations, causing physical harm to personnel, and instilling fear among aircrews can undermine the effectiveness of US military activities in the region.
    • Promoting a Narrative of US Vulnerability: The campaign aims to portray the US military as vulnerable to unconventional tactics and Chinese aggression, potentially weakening its deterrence capabilities and influencing regional perceptions of power dynamics.
    • Sowing Discord and Distrust: The disinformation campaign seeks to create confusion and distrust within the US and among its allies, potentially hindering cooperation and collective responses to Chinese actions.
  • Interpretant:
    • Recognizing China’s Hybrid Warfare Strategy: The laser strike campaign, coupled with disinformation efforts, is interpreted as a deliberate strategy by China to challenge US interests and undermine its position in the region.
    • The Need for Stronger Countermeasures: The incident highlights the need for developing more effective countermeasures against laser strikes and countering Chinese disinformation narratives.
    • Escalating Tensions and Potential for Conflict: The campaign raises concerns about the escalating tensions between the US and China and the potential for further conflict.
  • Representamen:
    • Pattern and Frequency of Strikes: The widespread and consistent nature of laser strike incidents suggests a coordinated effort rather than isolated events.
    • Targeting of US Aircraft and Personnel: The specific focus on US military targets reinforces the interpretation of the campaign as a deliberate act of aggression.
    • Chinese Disinformation Narratives: The amplification of narratives downplaying the threat or blaming other actors contributes to the broader strategic goals of the campaign.
  • Ground: The existing geopolitical context of US-China competition, China’s history of employing hybrid warfare tactics, and its expertise in information operations provide the framework for interpreting the laser strike campaign as a deliberate strategy.

Additional Considerations:

  • Online Actors and Disinformation: Investigate online forums, social media groups, and messaging platforms for potential coordination or encouragement of laser strikes, as well as the spread of disinformation narratives that align with China’s goals.
  • Motivations Beyond Disruption: Explore potential motives for China beyond simply disrupting US operations, such as testing US response capabilities, gathering intelligence, or demonstrating technological prowess.
  • International Response and Collaboration: Analyze the international response to laser strikes and the potential for collaboration among affected countries to counter this threat and address the challenge of hybrid warfare.

Conclusion:

Re-analyzing laser strikes through a China-centric semiotic lens strengthens the argument for considering them as a potential hybrid warfare tactic. By understanding the complex sign systems and narratives at play, we can better assess the threat, develop effective countermeasures, and respond strategically to China’s actions. The analysis underscores the importance of remaining vigilant and proactive in addressing the evolving challenges of hybrid warfare and information operations in the 21st century.

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The Abduction of Satan

Satan’s deceptive approach to claiming human souls is akin to authoritarian disinformation campaigns which target hearts and minds in the cognitive domain. In both contexts, there is a war going on outside and inside of the self which no human is safe from. You can run but you cannot hide forever from these threats. Combatting Satan and disinformation requires keeping it real by embracing the truth. In both cases, the long term consequences for the individual soul and collective humanity hang in the balance.

The biblical portrayal of Satan offers a profound understanding of the motivations and tactics driving disinformation campaigns, particularly when considering the historical and ongoing presence of anti-Semitism. Satan emerges throughout scripture as a figure of deception, division, and a relentless pursuit of power, exhibiting a particular hatred towards God’s chosen people, the Jews, and towards Jesus Christ, who is the embodiment of God’s divine truth and love for Christians.

Christ and Antichrist – Ilya Glazunov (Russian nationalist) – 1999

In the Old Testament, Satan’s adversarial role is evident in his temptation of Eve in the Garden of Eden (Genesis 3), leading to humanity’s fall from grace and separation from God. This act of deception sets the stage for a long history of conflict and distrust between humanity and the divine. Further examples of Satan’s influence include his role in Job’s suffering (Job 1-2) and his attempts to thwart God’s plans for the Israelites (Zechariah 3).

The New Testament further emphasizes Satan’s hatred for Jesus and his mission to bring salvation to humanity. The temptation of Christ in the wilderness (Matthew 4:1-11) illustrates Satan’s attempt to corrupt Jesus and lure him away from his divine purpose by offering worldly power and dominion. This act reflects Satan’s desire to usurp God’s authority and establish his own reign of darkness and deceit. Additionally, Satan’s influence is seen throughout the Gospels in the actions of those who oppose Jesus, culminating in his crucifixion.

Further, the New Testament portrayal of Satan provides more compelling understanding of the motivations and tactics employed in disinformation campaigns. Most notably, Revelation 12:9 depicts Satan as the “deceiver of the whole world,” underscoring his rebellion’s ability to manipulate and mislead us on a global scale.

Across various Christian scriptures, Satan continues to be portrayed as a complex figure whose strategies to mislead humanity are characterized by deceit, division, and a lust for power. In John 8:44, he is identified as a “murderer from the beginning” and the “father of lies,” highlighting his association with violence and deception. Mark 3:23-27 further emphasizes Satan’s role as a divider, seeking to sow discord and break apart nations and communities, and separate people from the truth and God.

To this extent, 1 Peter 5 reminds the faithful to be “self-controlled and alert. Your enemy the devil prowls around like a roaring lion looking for someone to devour. Resist him, standing firm in the faith, because you know that your brothers throughout the world are undergoing the same kind of sufferings.”

The psychological implications of the Satanic archetype as a disinformation paradigm are multifaceted. He represents the shadow self, embodying the darker aspects of human nature that we often repress or deny, including envy, hatred, the desire for power and control, and the willingness to transgress moral boundaries. Disinformation campaigns exploit these vulnerabilities, appealing to our fears, biases, and prejudices to manipulate our beliefs and behaviors. Succumbing to disinformation in this context is akin to giving into the temptation to sin through the Devil’s deception.

In this regard, 1 Peter reminds us of the value of information literacy and self-awareness when assessing the validity of information in a globally-conscious context. He also reminds us that resisting giving in to temptation despite the suffering in the world is something which unifies “God-believers”.

Furthermore, the recurring theme of anti-Semitism throughout history can be viewed as a manifestation of the Satanic archetype converging with disinformation. Satan’s hatred for the Jews, as God’s chosen people, fuels a narrative of “othering” and scapegoating, blaming Jews for societal problems and portraying them as a threat to national identity and security. This aligns with Satan’s role as a divider, sowing discord and conflict between groups.

The identification of Jews as Jesus’ crucifiers negates Jesus’ command to “forgive them for they know not what they do” in alignment with his clear message and mission (Luke 23:34-38). As a result, anti-Semitism based in the perception of Jews as the murderers of Jesus defies his commandment to forgive those who judged him wrongly; and is as a result an anti-Christian practice by definition.

Disinformation campaigns often utilize these anti-Semitic tropes and conspiracy theories to manipulate public opinion and justify discriminatory policies.

Satan means “adversary” and specifically in context the adversary of God. His name is self referential to his role. In this adversarial arrangement where Satan challenges God, it seems evident that because they were the people chosen by God to bring his message to mankind, Satan hates Jews. As God’s only son who he was also unable to lead astray, Satan clearly hates Jesus; and it results in his efforts to tempt Christians into anti-Christian behavior through the seduction of sin as represented in the temptation to embrace anti-Semitism.

From despotic leaders like the Pharaoh, to Nebuchadnezzar, Herod, and the “many antichrists” (1 John 2:18) observed by Christians throughout history, a common thread between Jews and Christians has been their opposition to wicked and tyrannical rule as a core aspect of the culture of monotheism, and a narrative of rising above worldly oppression. In this sense, the disinformation apparatuses of modern authoritarian regimes also suggest an inherent connection to the Satanic archetype, and an opposition to the core values of Judeo-Christian societies. Like the leaders of authoritarian countries, Satan is symbolic of the tyrannical autocrat who tempts us to partake in beliefs and behaviors which are contrary to our individual and social best interests.

By understanding the biblical foundation and psychological implications of the Satanic archetype, we can better recognize and deconstruct the tactics employed in disinformation campaigns and their connection to historical and ongoing anti-Semitism; as well as their relationship to the concept of sin in general. The emphasis on deception, division, and the pursuit of power serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of succumbing to the shadows of human nature and the importance of upholding truth, unity, and compassion in the face of manipulation and hatred.

(Context and Disclosure of AI Tool Use: The above text was constructed using a forensic semiotic approach to narrative and analysis of disinformation. The title draws inspiration from Charles Peirce’s concept of “Abduction”, and specifically in the forensic semiotic context as articulated by Marcel Danesi. The title is thus a play on words, with multiple meanings relating to the context and analytical method. This narrative was constructed using a large language model based on training by Michael Hotchkiss using content themes from n01r.com and applying computational forensic semiotics methods in Gemini Pro 1.5. It represents the author’s true feelings, beliefs, and expertise in disinformation research.)

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Putin’s Doubles: Semiotics of Imposture and Antichrist

Introduction: Game of Clones

Over the past five centuries, there are repeated instances in Russian history where the idea of a “royal impostor” and “pretender” who is an “usurper” to the throne has surfaced in a popular cultural narrative. In his seminal article on the subject of samozvanchestvo, renowned semiotician Boris Uspensky surmised: “[t]o write the history of Russia and avoid the question of royal imposture is impossible.” [1]

As also revealed in Uspensky’s essay; due to their sacralization as a divine ruler, the Russian leader was sometimes simultaneously associated with the antichrist, or in other analogies to the devil himself, who is the original “impostor” and deceiver in Christian tradition.

This essay will examine the resurgence in conspiracy theories suggesting “Putin’s doubles” or that “Putin was replaced” from the historical semiotic perspective of imposture. It attempts to suggest how these recurrent narratives may be organically emergent through the Russian state’s efforts to sacralize Vladimir Putin as an “Orthodox Christian” leader, as well as efforts to shape a politics of memory around “neo-medieval” themes.

AI-generated artwork prompt: ‘ Putin antichrist clone factory ‘ (1:  “Biochip computer clone birthing device”)

Continue reading “Putin’s Doubles: Semiotics of Imposture and Antichrist”

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Narrating the Wagner Uprising as a Nuclear Hybrid Threat

Introduction: From Nuclear Terrorism to Nuclear Hybrid Threats (and Nuclear Hybrid Warfare)

The geopolitical threat posed by the charismatic leader of a private military corporation (PMC) in possession of a stolen nuclear weapon and set against the backdrop of conspiracy theories involving Russia are themes central to the narrative of Konami’s “Metal Gear” series of videogames.

From June 23-24 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ‘Big Boss’ of PMC Wagner led his troops in an unprecedented uprising against Vladimir Putin. This week, Ukrainian intelligence spread narratives that the Wagner mercenaries had attempted to steal “backpack nukes” from a military base in Russia during their march on Moscow [1]; and so it was that life imitated the art of Metal Gear.

Meme with Yevgeny Prigozhin depicted as Metal Gear Solid’s Big Boss (credit: https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/2611049-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin; Original: https://twitter.com/AetiusRF/status/1672382455234306048)

Such scenarios as explored in Metal Gear and many other works of art might most often be classified academically under the keyphrase of “nuclear terrorism”. “Nuclear terrorism” (in quotes) seems a well-documented research area, which returned 22,300 hits today on Google Scholar for example.

However, for over a week before the narrative about Wagner raiding the nuclear base circulated, I had already been wondering if the Wagner uprising had been connected in any way to the tactical nuclear weapons which Russia had publicly placed in Belarus. I wondered if that may better explain Alexander Lukashenko’s strange role in the story as well.

In discussing my scenarios of using Wagner as a proxy for a deniable nuclear attack with hybrid warfare and disinformation expert Chris Kremidas-Courtney  (Senior Fellow, Defense and Security, Friends of Europe), he told me I was describing a “nuclear hybrid threat”.

Kremidas-Courtney deserves credit for coining this term in an academic context from what I can tell based on a quick literature review.  “Nuclear hybrid threat” does not occur on Google Scholar, and at least one of the two results for “nuclear hybrid warfare” appears to be a false positive.

Defining the PMC Wagner revolt more specifically in the scenario of a nuclear hybrid threat rather than as nuclear terrorism seems to have significant value from a modern academic information warfare perspective.

Hybrid threats have been defined by NATO as: “combin[ing] military and non-military as well as covert and overt means, including disinformation, cyber attacks, economic pressure, deployment of irregular armed groups and use of regular forces. Hybrid methods are used to blur the lines between war and peace, and attempt to sow doubt in the minds of target populations.” [2]

A nuclear hybrid threat could be defined as those nation-state hybrid threats which are related specifically to nuclear materials or weapons; and yet do not rise to the level of an actual nuclear war.

In this blog, I will seek to unpack the idea of 2023’s nuclear hybrid threats as generated by Russia in their war in Ukraine, especially as they relate to similar narratives of theoretical nuclear terrorism from Russia in the 1990’s involving “suitcase atomic bombs”, “briefcase nukes”, etc.

Perhaps this all ends up looking like a “nuclear cardboard box“…

Continue reading “Narrating the Wagner Uprising as a Nuclear Hybrid Threat”

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A Word to the People 1991 (Alexander Prokhanov et. al)

The idea of fostering unity of the supranational Russian Federation seems to be a consistent and conscious goal of modern Russian ideologists who are actively pursuing the adoption of a new national ideology [1 , 2]. Part of this conscious focus on unity may be due to an awareness that the Soviet Union disintegrated on ethnic-national boundaries in part because of its inability to establish a unifying ideology which appealed to the different ethnicities, cultures, and religions which the ‘evil empire’ was comprised of [3, 4].

Even as Russian ideologists actively work to promote a unifying “ideology of victory” in the new war [5], there are increasing observations in the West that the Russian Federation may be teetering on collapse and likely to further disintegrate along similar lines to those of 1991 [6].

Once again, as a key piece of Russian literature remains elusive to find in English, I will post below a translation of the July 1991 essay “A Word to the People”. This essay appeared in the hard-line Sovetskaya Rossiya journal and served as the ideological foundations for the August 1991 coup attempt. The text is widely attributed to the authorship of signatory Alexander Prokhanov, who continues to contribute to modern ideological projects of the Izborsky Club (such as the ideology of victory).

I feel this article is useful for framing how Russian ideologists were conscious of the impending collapse of the USSR, the awareness of the importance for national unity, and ultimately how this argument has somewhat come to represent not just the position of the August 1991 coup plotters – but also seemingly of the ideological elite in Putin’s Russia in 2022.

Ultimately the focus on unity of the disintegrating supranational empire as elaborated below is also a useful concept for understanding the ecumenical appeal of “desatanization” as an intentional ideological process within modern Russia.

A Word to the People
July 23, 1991

Dear Russians! Citizens of the USSR! Compatriots!

There was a huge unforeseen grief. Our homeland, our country, the great state, given to us for preservation by history, nature, and glorious ancestors, perishes, breaks, and plunges into darkness and non-existence. And this death occurs with our silence, connivance and consent.

Have our hearts and souls turned to stone and none of us has the power, courage, love for the Fatherland that moved our grandfathers and fathers, who laid down their lives for the Motherland on the battlefields and in gloomy dungeons, in great labors and struggles, composed of prayers , hardships and revelations to the state, for whom the Motherland and the state were the highest shrines of life? What happened to us brothers?

Why do cunning and eloquent rulers, clever and cunning apostates, greedy and rich money-grubbers, mocking us, mocking our beliefs, taking advantage of our naivety, seize power, pilfer riches, take away people’s houses, factories and lands, slaughter divide the country into parts, quarrel and fool us, excommunicate us from the past, remove us from the future – doom us to a miserable existence in slavery and subordination to all-powerful neighbors?

How did it happen that at our deafening rallies, in our irritation and impatience, longing for change, desiring prosperity for the country, allowed into power those who did not love this country, who were servile before overseas patrons, out there beyond the sea, seeking advice and blessings?

Brothers, we wake up late, we notice trouble late, when our house is already burning from four corners, when we have to extinguish it not with water, but with our own tears and blood. Can we really allow civil strife and war for the second time in this century, to again throw ourselves into the cruel millstones, which we have not launched, where the bones of the people will grind, and the backbone of Russia will break?

We address you with the words of utmost responsibility, we appeal to representatives of all professions and classes, all ideologies and beliefs, all parties and movements, for whom our differences are nothing before the common misfortune and pain, before the common love for the Motherland, which we see as one, indivisible, which rallied the fraternal peoples into a powerful state, without which we cannot exist under the sun.

Wake up, come to our senses, stand up both old and young for the country.

Let’s say “No!” destroyers and invaders. Let us put a limit on our retreat at the last line of resistance.

We are starting a nationwide movement, calling into our ranks those who have recognized the terrible misfortune that has befallen the country.

We call on the working people, to whom today’s Pharisees promised abundance and earnings, and now they are expelled from factories and mines, doomed to starvation, lack of rights, to dull standing in lines for benefits, a loaf of bread, for alms from the rich and owners.

We call on hard-working peasants, exhausted by ignorant authorities, whose current destinies are decided by yesterday’s destroyers of villages and creators of utopian programs, imposing a enslaving exchange on the grain grower, dooming the arable land to desolation, to the extermination of the surviving farms that feed the country.

We appeal to the engineers, whose hands, mind and talent created a unique technical civilization, a powerful industry that ensured the well-being and protection of the people, which allowed the Motherland to fly into space. Equipment, which, tired of working, needed modernization and renewal, after six years of idleness and ranting, stopped and collapsed, and now we are a country of stopped enterprises, silenced energy, disappeared goods, confused and impoverished engineers excommunicated from creativity.

We appeal to scientists who worthily promoted the development of domestic science, amazed the world with the fruits of their labors, accumulated  discoveries in laboratories and institutes for the next breakthrough into the twenty-first century, where we hoped for a worthy place in human civilization.

Instead, demagogues and malefactors ruin precious accumulations, scatter teams of researchers, close scientific areas, drive blood clots into the development of space research, nuclear technology, and the latest chemistry, dooming the best minds to vegetate, to flee from their native lands to prosperous countries. where their talent will feed not their own, but someone else’s development.

We direct our voice to the Army, having won our respect for humanity for the selfless feat of saving Europe from the Nazi plague, for the Army, which inherited the best qualities of the Russian, Soviet army and opposes aggressive forces. Our glorious defenders are going through difficult times. It is not the fault of the Army that it is forced to hastily leave foreign garrisons, to be the object of shameless political speculations, to be subjected to constant attacks of lies and slander by irresponsible politicians. But no one will be able to turn the Armed Forces into an amorphous mass, disintegrated from within, betrayed to desecration. We are convinced that the soldiers of the Army and Navy, true to their sacred duty, will not allow a fratricidal war, the destruction of the Fatherland, and will act as a reliable guarantor of security and a bulwark of all the healthy forces of society.

We direct our voice to the artists and writers who, bit by bit, created a culture on the ruins of the destroyed classics, who obtained images of beauty and  goodness for the people, who expected the flourishing of the arts in the future, and who found themselves in poverty, reducing creativity to a miserable farce for the amusement of merchants and the rich, when a people, excommunicated from the spirit, deprived of an ideal, ruled by immoral swindlers, is led out of history, turned into cheap labor power for foreign manufacturers.

We turn to the Orthodox Church, which has gone through Calvary, slowly, after all the beatings, rising from the Tomb. She, whose spiritual light shone in Russian history even in times of darkness; today, not yet strong, is tormented by strife, infringed upon in dioceses and parishes, and does not find worthy support in a strong sovereign power. Let her hear the voice of the people calling for salvation.

We appeal to Muslims, Buddhists, Protestants, believers of all denominations, for whom faith is synonymous with goodness, beauty and truth; cruelty, ugliness and lies are attacking them today, destroying their living soul.

We appeal to parties, large and small, to liberals and monarchists, to centralists and zemstvos, to singers of the national idea. We turn to the Communist Party, which bears full responsibility not only for the victories and failures of the previous seventy years, but also for the last six tragic ones, in which the Communist Party first led the country, and then renounced power, giving this  power to frivolous and inept parliamentarians who quarreled between each other, who produced thousands of stillborn laws, of which only those that give the people into bondage, and divides the exhausted yet alive body of the country into parts. The Communists, whose party is being destroyed by their own leaders, having  abandoned their party cards, rush one after another to the camp of the enemy – betray, betray, demand the gallows for their recent comrades – let the Communists hear our call!

The youth, our hope and flower, which is being smoldered, given over to the service of false idols, is doomed to idleness, mediocrity, drugs and crime.

The old people, our wisdom and pride, our unfailing workers and our tireless breadwinners, who received begging and desecration, defilement by a print and television brew of those who seek to kill the memory, in opposition to generations.

Young veterans, internationalist warriors, who showed dedication and humanism, high moral qualities, but placed in a position without guilt of the guilty.

Women who deny themselves the highest natural right to prolong their offspring for fear of breeding poverty, replenishing the army of the civil war with soldiers, afraid of their love and their motherhood …

Everyone who is, in cities and villages, in steppes and forests, at the edge of the great oceans washing the country – let’s wake up, stand up for unity and repulse the destroyers of the Motherland! …

Yuri Bondarev,
Valentin Varennikov,
Boris Gromov,
Ludmila Zykina,
Alexander Prokhanov,
Vasily Starodubtsev,
Yuri Blokhin,
Edward Volodin,
Gennady Zyuganov,
Vyacheslav Klykov,
Valentin Rasputin,
Alexander Tizyakov

“Soviet Russia”, 07/23/91

[7]

References

[1] Marlene Laruelle, “What is the Ideology of a Mobilized Russia?”, Russia Post, October 4 2022, https://russiapost.info/politics/war_ideology

[2] Juliette Faure, “The deep ideological roots of Russia’s war”, Monde Diplo, April 2022, https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03ideology

[3] Lev Topor and Alexander Tabachnik, “Russian Cyber Information Warfare : International Distribution and Domestic Control”, Journal of Advanced Military Studies vol. 12, no. 1, Spring 2021, https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2021120100

[4] Ronald Grigor Suny, 1993, “The revenge of the past : nationalism, revolution, and the collapse of the Soviet Union”,   Stanford University Press, https://archive.org/details/revengeofpastnat0000suny/mode/2up 

[5] Michael Hotchkiss, “Ideology of Victory and the Death of Daria Dugina”, n01r.com, September 11 2022, https://n01r.com/ideology-of-victory-and-the-death-of-daria-dugina/ 

[6] Luke Coffey, “Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation”, Hudson Institute, December 14 2022, https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/preparing-final-collapse-soviet-union-dissolution-russian-federation 

[7] Alexander Prokhanov, et. al,  «Слово к народу» (“A Word to the People”), Sovetskaya Rossiya, July 23 1991, (Translation made from reprint: https://kprf.ru/media/filestorage/library/c65ca2_pravdamos_27_261_6.pdf )

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“Ideology of Victory” and the Death of Daria Dugina

Daria Dugina (Darya Dugina), daughter of Alexander Dugin, was reported to have died on August 20, 2022 in a car bombing in the Moscow suburbs. Russian political authorities, federal police, and propagandists have consistently portrayed it as an act of Ukrainian terrorism and pointed to Ukrainian suspects.

Conversely, Ukraine has officially denied these allegations. Rather than taking the event at face value as it has been portrayed in Russian media, many Western reports have questioned whether it was an act of “false flag” terrorism.

In this scenario, the killing of Dugina would be intended to bolster public support for the war in Ukraine by reinforcing the idea of Ukraine as a fascist, terrorist state. It would be analogous to a widespread theory that the FSB had carried out a series of apartment bombings in September 1999 in order to bolster public support for a second war in Chechnya.

When Alexander Dugin first released a public statement about the assassination, he did so through Konstantin Malofeev on Malofeev’s Telegram channel [1]. Malofeev, like Dugin has not only been sanctioned for his actions related to Ukraine, but is a member of the ultra-conservative Izborsky Club; a philosophical group which was co-founded by Alexander Prokhanov and Vitali Averyanov, and includes many prominent Russians, some close to Putin [2].

This long-read report demonstrates that regardless of whom may be responsible for the crime, the death of Daria Dugina has been consciously manipulated by figures like Alexander Dugin, Alexander Prokhanov, and Konstantin Malofeev in order to frame the murder as a kind of symbol of martyrdom which supports the neo-imperialist “Ideology of Victory” that was formally articulated by the Izborskists in October 2021, prior to the Ukraine invasion.

The death of Daria Dugina provokes enduring symbols of Russian ideology

This observation in and of itself does not mean the Izborskists have complicity in the murder. But it does seek to prove objectively that the death has been used consciously from the start as an ideological and political instrument of Russian imperial power. Continue reading ““Ideology of Victory” and the Death of Daria Dugina”

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Images of Torture and Execution in Illustrated Chronicle of Ivan IV

President Putin recently created a controversy when he “defended” the Oprichnik chief Malyuta Skuratov from the traditionally accepted view that he had strangled Metropolitan Philip for refusing to bless Ivan Grozny’s military campaign on Novgorod. This action has been seen as related to the “information warfare” arguments about Ivan IV which have been crafted by the ideologists of the Izborsky Club; and it may relate to recent national security strategies which seem intended to protect Russia’s “historical memory”.

The ideologists responsible for these narratives have in recent years frequently sought to portray the common negative appraisals of Ivan IV and his guardsmen’s terrors as the product of Western “information wars” which were furthered by Western superiority in printing. The Gutenberg Bible for example was printed in Germany nearly 100 years before Ivan IV ordered the development of the first Russian print yard.

Translated Ivan the Terrible exhibit from ‘Russia, My History’, Moscow

In the above image from the “Russia, My History” exhibitions we can see two German images which are related to this information warfare idea. Continue reading “Images of Torture and Execution in Illustrated Chronicle of Ivan IV”

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The Life and Crimes of Arthur Rochford Manby (by Dr. Richard Spence)

Professor of History, Dr. Richard Spence who has previously contributed a very interesting (and highly relevant) blog on Jack Parsons was kind enough to again donate some previously unpublished content for your enjoyment.

The legend of Arthur Rochford Manby  remains an enduring mystery of the American Southwest. A tale spilling over with tantalizing connections to black magic and the occult,  murder, secret societies, foreign intelligence, artwork, and con-artistry — this fascinating report is a  great fit for n01r. 

Who was this mysterious man?

 

Sagebrush Noir: The Life and Crimes of Arthur Rochford Manby
c. 2015
Dr. Richard B. Spence

On July 3rd, 1929 lawmen and townspeople crowded into a small room of a sprawling adobe mansion in Taos, New Mexico. Blue-bottle flies buzzed all around and the stench of death hung heavy in the air. The assembled gazed at a simple army cot where a half-dressed corpse lay wrapped in a blanket. And it was just a body: the severed, badly mutilated head rested in a nearby room. It was the general opinion then, and since, that the corpse and head belonged to the mansion’s owner, Arthur R. Manby. But others were not so sure. Most importantly, how had Manby died?

Taos' unsolved mystery | Tradiciones / Leyendas | taosnews.com
Last known picture of Arthur Rochford Manby (1860-1929)

Continue reading “The Life and Crimes of Arthur Rochford Manby (by Dr. Richard Spence)”

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The ROC’s Pro-Vaccination Conspiracy Theories

In American conservative media, there has been a recent push encouraging vaccine adoption. Notable examples of figures making public statements advocating for vaccines over the past week include Mitch McConnell, Steve Scalise, and Sean Hannity. Such gestures have been welcomed by semi-puzzled liberals, who have come to associate conservative politics during much of the pandemic with skepticism of vaccines and an embrace of conspiracy theories [1].

In the past month, a similar push for the acceptance of vaccines has been furthered in Russia. This seems to have been kicked off on June 30 with Vladimir Putin’s annual call-in show where he said he had received the Sputnik V vaccine. This added additional detail to quieter earlier disclosures that the Russian president had received a second shot in March. While promoting the safety of domestic Russian vaccines, Putin continued to stoke fears in Western vaccines, saying: “thank God we haven’t had tragic situations after vaccinations like after the use of AstraZeneca or Pfizer.”  [2]

Putin’s patriotic vaccine statements seemed to form a cue for senior clergy of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to come out publicly in favor of vaccination with domestic vaccines, using many of the tropes of conservative conspiracy theory. This vaccine promotion is interesting because these figures have themselves often been associated with national ideology, conspiracy theories, and disinformation – and even rumors of involvement with the FSB.  Their approach may offer some constructive lessons in how conspiratorial language can be repurposed to promote vaccine adoption. But it also raises more questions about the state of disinformation in Russia and its effects abroad.

Holy men Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeyev), Vladimir Putin, and Metropolitan Tikhon (Shevkunov)

Continue reading “The ROC’s Pro-Vaccination Conspiracy Theories”

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